`Black swans` van Saxo Bank voor 2012

De `perfect storm`, zo vat Saxo Bank

haar traditionele `10 outrageous predictions` voor het nieuwe jaar

samen. Al komen maar enkele voorspellingen uit, dan wordt 2012 een jaar

van `enorme verandering`, aldus chief economist Steen Jakobsen. Wat te

denken van het tijdelijk stilvallen van Europese financiële markten en

banken?

Ter inleiding

The first is that we always focus on “fat tail” predictions, i.e. events

that are unlikely to happen, but are perhaps far more likely than the

market appreciates. Saxo Bank first launched this publication 10 years

ago as an exercise in looking at events which, should they happen, would

change the outlook and performance of markets. This was before the

concept of Black Swans was popularised. Our publication was rather

inspired by option theory and looking at the tail-risk – an event which

based on odds or logic has a very small chance of happening, but somehow

still happens far more often than any model is able to predict.

Should one, two or three of our Outrageous Predictions come to pass, it

would make 2012 a year of tremendous change. This may not necessarily be

a negative thing either - and given the structure and uncertainties in

the marketplace here at the end of 2011, we would suggest that even if

none of our predictions come to pass, equally important and totally

unanticipated events will. Sometimes we need to get to a new starting

point before we can gain the right perspective. We hope 2012 will be the

year  where we start on the long march towards re-establishing jobs,

growth and confidence.

En dan is hier de top-10...

1 - THE STOCK OF APPLE INC PLUMMETS 50 PERCENT FROM 2011 HIGH

No sovereign or corporate empire has ever maintained its superior

position for long because attacks mount and loyalty fades. Going into

2012 Apple will find itself faced with multiple competitors such as

Google, Amazon, Microsoft/Nokia, and Samsung across its most innovative

products, the iPhone and iPad. Apple will be unable to maintain its

market share of 55 percent (three times as much as Android) and 66

percent on the iOS and iPad as Android will gain further momentum and

Amazon’s low priced Kindle Fire will cut deeply into Apple’s tablet

reign. In relation to current earnings Apple is not expensive but

expectations about future profit growth will come down hard as

competition reaches insane levels and crushes Apple’s profit margins.

2 - EU DECLARES EXTENDED BANK HOLIDAY DURING 2012

The December EU Treaty changes prove insufficient to solve EU funding

needs – particularly those in Italy – and the EU debt crisis returns

with a vengeance by mid-year. In response, the stock market finally

caves in and drops 25 percent in short order, prompting EU politicians

to call an extended bank holiday – closing all European exchanges and

banks for a week or more. EU leaders gather like Vatican cardinals at a

conclave to hammer out a “New Europe”. This could result in EU officials

overstepping their mandate once again with new burdensome command and

control measures that further violate the principles of the EU and free

markets. Regardless, this “final” attempt leads straight to a popular

overthrow of the old order and beginning of destruction of the sovereign

debt time bomb. A period of pain is inevitable, but this will quickly

allow a “new EU” to regroup with new membership and a new base from

which its economies and markets can start planning for the future,

rather than dealing with the mistakes of the past.

3 - A YET UNANNOUNCED CANDIDATE TAKES THE WHITE HOUSE

In 1992, a savvy, yet highly erratic Texas billionaire named Ross Perot

managed to take advantage of a recessionary economy and popular disgust

with US politics and reap 18.9 percent of the popular vote. Step forward

to 2008, and Obama promises “real change” from eight years of

Republican rule as the economy is nose-diving. Now, three years of Obama

has brought too little change and only additional widespread

disillusionment with the entire US political system. Going into the

election in 2012, the incumbent Democrats are in ideological disarray

and will get the blame for continued economic malaise and the

favour-the-rich Republicans will never win the popular vote with the US

rich/poor gap at a record width and social tension rising. In short,

conditions for a third party candidate have never been riper. Someone

smart enough to sense this and with a strong programme for real change

throws his hat in the ring early in 2012 and snatches the presidency in

November in one of the most pivotal elections in US history, taking 38

percent of the popular vote. A new political order is born.

4 - AUSTRALIA GOES INTO RECESSION

The Chinese locomotive has been losing steam throughout 2011 as

investment and real estate led growth becomes harder and harder to come

by due to diminishing marginal returns. The effects of the slowing of

the up-and-coming Asian giant ripple through Asia Pacific and push other

countries into recession. If there ever was a country dependent on the

well-being of China it is Australia with its heavy dependence on mining

and natural resources. And as China’s demand for these goods weakens

Australia is pushed into a recession, which is then exacerbated as the

housing sector finally experiences its long overdue crash – a half

decade after the rest of the developed world.

5 - BASEL III AND REGULATION FORCE 50 BANK NATIONALISATIONS IN EUROPE

As 2012 begins, pressure will mount on the European banking system as

new capital requirements and regulatory pressure force banks to

deleverage in a great hurry. This creates a fire sale on financial

assets as there are few takers in the market. Troubled sovereigns,

structural funding gaps and massive trading books set the scene for the

largest bank rescue operation in Europe’s history. Politicians, eager to

score points with the public, create a regulatory mob enforcing value

destruction in the banking system “in the name of greater good”. A total

freeze of the European interbank market forces nervous savers to make

bank-runs, as depositors distrust deposit guarantees from insolvent

sovereigns. More than 50 banks end up on government balance sheets and

several known commercial bank brands cease to exist.

6 - SWEDEN AND NORWAY REPLACE SWITZERLAND AS SAFE HAVENS

Sweden and Norway are at risk of replacing Switzerland as the new safe

havens – “risk” because, as we saw with Switzerland, becoming a safe

haven in a world of devaluing central banks presents a number of risks

to a country’s economy. The capital markets of both countries are far

smaller than Switzerland, (the combined FX volume in Sweden and Norway

being a mere fraction of Switzerland’s), but the Swiss are aggressively

devaluing their currency and money managers are looking for new safe

havens for capital. At the same time, Germany and its balance sheet are

embroiled in the EU debt debacle and the classic safe haven appeal of

10-year Bunds is fading fast. Sweden and Norway sport excellent current

account fundamentals, prudent social policies and skilled and flexible

labour forces. Flows into the two countries’ government bonds on safe

haven appeal becomes popular enough to drive 10-year rates there to more

than 100 basis points below the classic safe haven German Bunds.

7 - SWISS NATIONAL BANK WINS AND CATAPULTS EURCHF TO 1.50

Switzerland’s persistency in fighting the appreciation of its currency

will continue to pay off in 2012. After the dramatic failure of direct

FX intervention in the market in 2009 and 2010 and after EURCHF

threatened to destroy the Swiss economy with its death spiral towards

parity in mid-2011, the Swiss National Bank and Swiss government finally

joined forces to engineer an aggressive expansion of money supply and

established a floor in EURCHF at 1.20. With Swiss fundamentals –

particularly export related – continuing to suffer mightily in 2012 from

past CHF strength, the SNB and government bear down further to prevent

more collateral damage and introduce extensions to existing programmes

and even negative interest rates to trigger sufficient capital flight

from the traditional safe haven of Switzerland to engineer a move in

EURCHF as high as 1.50 during the year, much to the chagrin of those who

believe central banks can’t intervene successfully.

8 - USDCNY RISES 10 PERCENT TO 7.00

The impressive growth rates in the world’s second-largest economy,

China, since the end of the Great Recession have been predicated on

investment and exports. As marginal returns from building

million-inhabitant ghost towns diminish and exporters struggle with

razor-thin margins due to the advancing CNY China gets to the brink of a

“recession”, meaning 5-6 per cent GDP growth. Chinese policymakers come

to the rescue of exporters by allowing the CNY to decline against a US

Dollar - buoyed by its safe-haven status amid slowing global growth and

an on-going Eurozone sovereign debt crisis - and send the pair up to

7.00 for a 10 percent increase.

9 - BALTIC DRY INDEX RISES 100 PERCENT

Despite the dry bulk fleet being expected to outgrow demand in 2012,

leading to further over capacity, several factors could surprise

resulting in a price spike in the Baltic Dry Index. Lower oil prices in

2012 could lead to an increase in the Baltic Dry Index as operating

expenses go down. Brazil and Australia are expected to expand iron ore

supply, further leading to lower prices and therefore higher import

demand from China to satisfy its insatiable industrial production. In

combination with monetary easing this leads to a massive spike in iron

ore demand. The last shock that could impact the dry bulk market is

exceptional dry weather, due to El Nino, leading to a plunge in

hydropower electricity generation and thereby fuelling demand for coal

imports.

10 - WHEAT PRICES TO DOUBLE IN 2012

The price of CBOT wheat will double during 2012 after having been the

worst performing crop in 2011. The drop was brought about due to a

combination of farmers responding to high prices in 2010/11 and

normalised weather in the Former Soviet Union. However with 7 billion

people on the earth and money printing machines at full throttle bad

weather across the world will unfortunately return and make it a tricky

year for agricultural products. Wheat especially will rally strongly as

speculative investors, who had built up one of the biggest short

positions on record, will help drive the price back towards the record

high last seen in 2008.

Bron: Saxo Bank

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