"Amerika zit op een volledig onhoudbare fiscale koers, waarbij de politiek kennelijk niet in staat is tot enige correctie". Dat zegt econoom, historicus en schrijver Niall Ferguson tijdens een lezing in Australië. "China zal uiteindelijk uit T-bonds stappen."
Uit de officiële presentatie, georganiseerd door ForaTV en de Australian Broadcasting Corporation:
Throughout history the rise and fall of empires isn't slow or cyclical, as we like to think, but arrhythmic...it mostly happens very, very suddenly. America is a superpower on the edge of chaos, according to economic historian and author Niall Ferguson. U.S. debt levels, he says, and its unwillingness to address the problem, has put it in the same category as other great empires which have collapsed throughout the ages.
Ferguson argues the world is changing. There's the rise of authoritarian China as a super-power; a Keynesian president leading a weakened United States; the re-emergence of democratic India as a great power; the continued decline of Japan; and the probability of continued global economic instability ahead.
Onderdelen van de speech van Ferguson:
01. Introduction 09 min 09 sec
02. Niall Ferguson Opening Remarks 01 min 40 sec
03. Historical Cycles of Empire Decline 07 min 07 sec
04. Complexity Theory 08 min 20 sec
05. Implications for the United States 06 min 22 sec
06. Interest Payments as a Share of US Revenue 01 min 56 sec
07. Failure of Perception 02 min 43 sec
08. Debt Payment Overtaking Defense Spending 06 min 58 sec
09. Q1: Healthcare Reform 04 min 10 sec
10. Q2: China's Military Sustainability 02 min 38 sec
11. Q3: Gold Investing 01 min 24 sec
12. Q4: Political Stability of China 02 min 42 sec
13. Q5: Children Teaching You About Debt / Radical Islam 03 min 57 sec
14. Q6: Advice to Obama 02 min 40 sec
15. Q7: Limits of Keynesian Stimulus 03 min 46 sec
16. Q8: Better Leadership in the West 03 min 27 sec
17. Q9: Fear of Hyperinflation 05 min 09 sec
Kijk vooral naar deel 8, waarin Ferguson voorspelt dat China uiteindelijk zal stoppen met het investeren in Amerikaanse T-bonds.